The loom of time Between empire and anarchy, from the Mediterranean to China

Robert D. Kaplan, 1952-

Book - 2023

"The Greater Middle East, the vast region between the Mediterranean and China encompassing much of the Arab world, parts of northern Africa, and Asia, existed for millennia as the crossroads of empire: Macedonian, Mongol, Ottoman, Russian, British. But with the dissolution of empires in the twentieth century, postcolonial states have struggled to maintain stability in the face of power struggles between factions, leadership vacuums, and the fact of arbitrary borders drawn by exiting imperial rulers with little regard for geography or political groups on the ground. In the Loom of Time, Robert Kaplan explores this broad, fraught space to reveal deeper truths about the impacts of history on the present and how the requirements of stabili...ty over anarchy are often in conflict with the ideals of democratic governance. In The Loom of Time, Kaplan makes an excellent case for realism the world over, but especially for it as an approach to the Greater Middle East. Just as Western attempts as democracy promotion across the Middle East have failed, a new form of economic imperialism is emerging today as China's ambitions fall squarely within the region as the key link between Europe and East Asia. As in the past, the Greater Middle East will be a register of future great power struggles across the globe. And like in the past, thousands of years of imperial rule will continue to cast a long shadow on politics as it is practiced today"--

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Subjects
Genres
Informational works
Published
New York : Random House [2023]
Language
English
Main Author
Robert D. Kaplan, 1952- (author)
Edition
First edition
Physical Description
xviii, 374 pages : map ; 25 cm
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 345-356) and index.
ISBN
9780593242797
  • Prologue: China in the afterlife of empire
  • Time and terrain
  • Aegean
  • Constantinople
  • Lower Nile
  • Upper Nile
  • Arabia deserta
  • Fertile crescent : part I
  • Fertile crescent : part II
  • Fertile crescent : part III
  • Safavid Iran
  • Way of the Pathans
  • Epilogue: A failure of imagination.
Review by Booklist Review

Prolific foreign affairs expert Kaplan (The Good American, 2020) continues to emphasize the geopolitical significance of the "Greater Middle East," that broad, arid swath from Greece and Egypt through Mesopotamia and Afghanistan that connected the great empires of the past yet largely resisted their dominance. The future, argues Kaplan, will resemble the past. As the age of the Westphalian nation-state wanes, a likely eventuality, given current trends, older patterns of regional influence will reemerge. Resource-hungry world powers, specifically an ascendant Beijing and diminished but still dangerous Russia, will compete, or worse, collude, in a Eurasian heartland rich with resources and out of reach of the U.S. This echoes Kaplan's other works, especially The Return of Marco Polo's World (2018), in its pessimistic realpolitik and anxiety about Chinese ambitions. Geography is destiny, he asserts, and democracy, though beautiful, is a world-historical flash in the pan. But here Kaplan's perspective is leavened by firsthand experiences of such key historical moments as the Iran-Iraq war and the Soviet-Afghan conflagration, and by robust engagement with such earlier historians as Arnold Toynbee and Elie Kedourie.

From Booklist, Copyright (c) American Library Association. Used with permission.
Review by Publisher's Weekly Review

The vast Muslim heartland of Afro-Eurasia is a tumult that might find stability and prosperity but rarely democracy, according to this sweeping geopolitical meditation. Drawing on travelogue, interviews, scholarly literature, and 50 years of reporting on the region, Kaplan (The Coming Anarchy) surveys a "Greater Middle East" stretching from the Nile to the Uyghur community of Xinjiang, China. In Istanbul he ponders President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's turn from secularism toward a reprise of the Ottoman Empire. In Cairo he notes Egyptians' preference for Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's stolid dictatorship over the chaos of the elected Islamist government of Mohammad Morsi. He deplores Iran's "bleak, radical, utterly despised, and dysfunctional" theocracy but holds out hope that the ancient civilization might attain liberal democracy. From these and other examples, Kaplan distills larger themes: geography is destiny; the West's modernizing influence has energized the region's oscillation between secular dictatorship and Islamist reaction; and that "along with empire, monarchy is the most natural form of government," so that a competent, nonideological autocrat may be preferable to an anarchic democracy. (He somewhat credulously paints Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman as a dynamic ruler who is liberalizing Saudi society.) Some may criticize Kaplan's conservative outlook and grand pronouncements, but he offers much provocative food for thought. (Aug.)

(c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved
Review by Kirkus Book Review

The bestselling author specializing in geopolitics returns to the Middle East to deliver another tour de force. Drawing on 50 years of experience interviewing officials, intellectuals, historians, and fellow journalists and reading seemingly every history and scholarly work from Herodotus to Gibbon to Toynbee, Kaplan is convinced that "the big story in the Middle East today is not necessarily the failure of democracy--but the departure of empire." After the breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, Britain and France had their moments, followed by the U.S and the Soviet Union. The 1991 Soviet collapse and disastrous U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan delivered the kiss of death, so "for the first time in modern history the region is in a post-imperial phase." Western scholars deplore empires, but nations with an ancient imperial tradition (Turkey, Iran, China) have no doubt that the world can benefit from their cultures. That humans yearn for democracy is a peculiarly Western fantasy. In reality, given a choice between dictatorship and disorder, a large percentage of the population, Americans included, prefers the former. In Turkey, Recep Erdoğan has been in office for two decades, evolving into another democratically elected autocrat. He has embraced Islamism, reversed national idol Kemal Ataturk's fierce secularization, and revived the expansiveness of the former Ottoman Empire, which Turks have always admired. Egypt is still recovering from the Arab Spring, during which the Muslim Brotherhood won a free election but could not establish order, so most Egyptians did not object when the nation's military returned to power. Kaplan points out that the U.S. regularly denounces lack of democracy throughout this region, from Libya to Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Yemen, and Iraq, apparently unaware that this would mean government by Islamists whose rule in Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan does not inspire confidence. American officials urge these nations to adopt progressive policies absent in the U.S. until recently. As always, the author offers much food for thought about a variety of geopolitical issues. Little encouraging news but brilliantly delivered. Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.

Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.

Chapter 1 Time and Terrain Between Europe and the great, mature civilizations of China and India lies a belt of over three thousand miles, dominated by desert and stony tableland, where rainfall is relatively little, frontiers are contested, political unity has rarely existed, and where, as the late Princeton historian Bernard Lewis claimed, there has been no historical pattern of authority. Lewis's generalization is imperfect, to be sure. Egypt and Iran, it could well be argued, were mature civilizations for thousands of years, as were Iraq and Turkey. Nevertheless, there is a point to be made regarding the general aridity, sheer variety, and political tumult in the lands between the Mediterranean and China. It is this austere landscape that constitutes the "Land of Insolence," declared mid-twentieth-century American anthropologist Carleton Coon, referring to the rebellious nature of modern Middle Eastern politics, with its tradition of pride and independence that combines with tribalism and ethnic and sectarian tensions. Coon's phraseology is especially quaint and deterministic, particularly since tribalism has kept the peace within large groups, and in other ways is not the altogether divisive factor the West thinks it is. Nevertheless, Coon's phrase has an undeniable resonance, owing to the indisputably high level of violence and political instability in this yawning region compared to other parts of the globe. For example, a significant part of the population of the Arab world has experienced violent anarchy in recent decades, and according to a U.N. report, though Arabs account for only 5 percent of humanity, they have generated 58 percent of the world's refugees and 68 percent of its "battle-related deaths" in the second decade of the twenty-first century. Indeed, the maturation from medieval kingdoms to early modern states, and then to modern democratic states, as happened in Europe, or of the successive, millennia-long drumroll of elaborate dynastic empires as in China and the Indian subcontinent--places with lusher, more habitable landscapes--do not obtain to the same degree in the vast and thin-soiled battlefield of different cultures and civilizations that sweeps across the southern rimland of Eurasia, too often disunited by a singular religion rather than united by it. Keep in mind, however, that the tragedy of the Greater Middle East ever since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire has as much to do with the West's dynamic interaction with it as with the region itself, as we shall see later on. But first, back to the essentials. The very question of political authority--of who controls whom--has often been unsettled across the Middle East. Islam, revealed by the Prophet Muhammad, a trader in the richly cosmopolitan crossroads of Mecca at the beginning of the seventh century a.d., was concerned with ethics and how to live a pure and just life against the demanding limitations of a desert landscape, where the environment was treacherous and travel consequently difficult. Here aridity had created oases that served as "juncture points" across the desert, spurring trade, and thus Islam was a boon to honest-dealing. Though the new religion offered a complete way of existence that spanned civilizations and over the centuries made millions of impoverished people content with their lives, as Coon was one of the first outsiders to observe, it left no sturdy provision for temporal political authority. That is to say, whereas other religions, such as Christianity, did not seek control over politics, but generally limited themselves to private belief, Islam offered a complete way of existence. Olivier Roy, the French academic and political scientist, writes that "Islam was born as a sect and as a society," but without institutions or even a clergy to organize it. Indeed, the great linguist and area specialist of the Sorbonne, the late Maxime Rodinson, called Islam "not only an association of believers," but a "total society." And as a total society--encompassing the heretofore secular world--Islam required but often crucially lacked, as Roy puts it, a philosophy of political organization. Because Muhammad offered an utterly new and purer interpretation of existence that would replace the previous social contract, he was naturally met with opposition. When he and his followers left Mecca because of its hostility to the new creed and fled northward to Yathrib (Medina, "the city"), they essentially founded a new community. Significantly, the Islamic calendar begins not with Muhammad's birth or even with the beginning of his revelation, but with this migration, or Hegira. This new community was for all intents and purposes revolutionary. And in the Arab and Islamic worlds it would consequently breed over the centuries and millennia dynastic upheavals and other revolutions having to do with sect, ambition, legitimacy, and purity. The very rise and fall of dynastic empires, and the political dramas within them, across the Middle East often had to do with the intersection of religion and politics. Sayyid Qutb, the Egyptian intellectual and Muslim Brotherhood leader, famously used this argument to attack the impure, pagan (kafir) system of Gamal Abdel Nasser, who would have Qutb executed by hanging in 1966. Ever since the first half century of Islam's founding, authority has been disputed and struggles have ensued over the leadership of the faith, with Sunnis, Ibadis, and Shi'ites--and the various offshoots of Shi'ism such as Zaidis, Isma'ilis, Alawites, Druzes, and so on--all maintaining different theories of spiritual governance, in a way not so dissimilar to Christianity. Political legitimacy was very difficult to come by. This became true not only at the state level, but at the level of the town and tribe, and within tribes, so that many a place was divided between "Arabian Montagues and Capulets," in the words of the Oxford-trained Arabist Tim Mackintosh-Smith. Particularly after the collapse following World War I of the Ottoman Empire, which had led the Islamic world in the Middle East for at least half a millennium, there have been bloody struggles over the inheritance of power, leading to a contest over which group could claim to be the purest in doctrine, and sometimes by inference the most extreme, a tendency that has had its similarities with medieval Christianity. The corollary was the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution, the various offshoots of Salafism, and particularly ISIS: making for a Grand Guignol of violence and breathless headlines with which we have all become depressingly familiar. This, then, is the Greater Middle East, broadly speaking the Islamic world of the desert and plains (as opposed to the Indian Ocean world of seafaring Islam), a vast swath of the earth where I have spent the past fifty years traveling and reading about: stretching from Morocco in the western Mediterranean to East Turkestan, abutting the arable cradle of China; or from the Eastern Orthodox Balkans south to the mountainous monsoon land of Yemen; or, by yet another measure, from the violent anarchy of Libya to that of Afghanistan. It is an area that the Greeks referred to as the oikoumene, meaning the inhabited part of the globe that the Greeks knew and knew of. The oikoumene was an idea more than a geography. A concept much larger than the arid zone of the Arab world, it included Ethiopia, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and featured an interconnectedness that constituted an early form of globalization. This is the same map largely traversed by Herodotus and Alexander the Great. It is often the most antique and storied places that have provided the datelines for the worst modern horrors. For example, witness Palmyra. Lodged in my memory of decades ago are its slender Corinthian columns punctuating the horizontality of the Syrian Desert. Here the "Queen of the East," Zenobia, a far more substantial figure than Cleopatra, was finally subjugated by the Roman emperor Aurelian in a.d. 272. Aurelian burnt the city down a year later. Palmyra would be subjugated once again and have much of its greatest antiquities mutilated and destroyed by ISIS between 2015 and 2017. It was a seminal crime against sacred objects of the past, confirming the group's nihilistic violence against human beings. What is the direction of it all? What political dimensions will this vast region located largely in the subtropics between Europe and the Far East ultimately assume? Might it emerge out of decades of instability and bad governance to find a crucial middle ground between tyranny on one hand, and anarchy on the other? The answers begin with a perspective across the chasm of the decades and centuries. To explore that distance so far beyond the scope of human comprehension, as well as other questions, requires the help of not only contemporary experts but also writers long out of fashion. For while the values of those deceased writers may not measure up to our own, their brilliance is undeniable, the reason why their works have been judged as classics in the first place. Thus, we should be humble regarding previous ages of scholarship, which, flawed as they may be, provide the foundation for our own. So let us begin. Excerpted from The Loom of Time: Between Empire and Anarchy, from the Mediterranean to China by Robert D. Kaplan All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.