Noise A flaw in human judgment

Psychology professor Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow), business professor Sibony (You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!), and legal scholar Sunstein (Too Much Information) team up for this fascinating exploration of the bias and "noise" that cause errors in human judgment. Noise, they write, is "variability in judgments that should be identical" that, when combined with one's own biases--conscious or not--can cause human error. The authors offer no shortage of noise-reduction strategies: "decision hygiene," for example, involves sequencing information to cut back on the possibility of confirmation bias, a technique used in forensic science analyses, where examiners get "only the information they need when they need it." The authors also suggest breaking down complex decisions into "multiple fact-based assessments"; avoiding group discussions, which increase noise, instead collecting individual opinions beforehand; and appointing a "decision observer" to identify bias. Though the writing can be jargon-heavy, readers will find plenty of insight and useful exercises. The result is dense and complex, but those who stay the course will be rewarded with an intricate examination of decision-making and sound judgment. Agent: Max Brockman, Brockman, Inc. (May)

A sprawling study of errors in decision-making, some literal matters of life and death. You go to a doctor complaining of chest pains. The doctor orders an angiogram. The hospital requires a second opinion before authorizing surgery, and the second doctor disagrees on the extent to which a specific blood vessel is blocked. These unpredictable disagreements over the same data are what Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein call "noise," a species of human error that happens whenever such higher-order judgments are involved. Noise, they write, is rampant in medicine, where "different doctors make different judgments about whether patients have skin cancer, breast cancer, tuberculosis, pneumonia, depression, and a host of other conditions." Noise is especially prevalent in psychiatry, they add, where subjective opinion is more pronounced than in other disciplines. A cousin of bias, noise is difficult to isolate and correct. In forensic science, the authors write, noise is implicated in nearly half of all misidentifications of perpetrators and wrongful imprisonments. Unlike some categories of error, noise is often not helped by the introduction of more information. Writing in often dense but generally nontechnical prose, the authors offer strategies for reducing noise. One is to average out predictions in, say, stock market performance, since "noise is inherently statistical." Another is to consult the smartest people you can find; while they may not be flawless, "picking those with highest mental ability makes a lot of sense." Since error combines with snap decisions, the authors endorse rigorous review and other strategies for noise reduction and "decision hygiene" as well as developing habits of mind that acknowledge both bias and error and favor examining the opinions of those with whom one disagrees as dispassionately and fairly as possible. "To improve the quality of our judgments," they urge, "we need to overcome noise as well as bias." Abundant food for thought for professionals of all types as well as students of decision science and behavioral economics. Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.