Cyberwar How Russian hackers and trolls helped elect a president : what we don't, can't, and do know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Book - 2018

"The question of how Donald Trump won the 2016 election looms over his presidency. In particular, were the 78,000 voters who gave him an Electoral College victory affected by the Russian trolls and hackers? Trump had denied it. So too has Vladimir Putin. Others cast the answer as unknowable. Drawing on path-breaking work in which she and her colleagues isolated significant communications effects in the 2000 and 2008 presidential campaigns, the eminent political communication scholar Kathleen Hall Jamieson marshals the troll posts, unique polling data, analyses of how the press used the hacked content, and a synthesis of half a century of media effects research to argue that, although not certain, it is probable that the Russians helped... elect the 45th president of the United States. In the process, Cyberwar tackles questions that include: How extensive was the troll messaging? What characteristics of the social media platforms did the Russians exploit? Why did the mainstream press rush the hacked content into the citizenry's newsfeeds? Was Clinton telling the truth when she alleged that the debate moderators distorted what she said in the leaked speeches? Did the Russian influence extend beyond social media and news to alter the behavior of FBI director James Comey? After detailing the ways in which the Russian efforts were abetted by the press, social media platforms, the candidates, party leaders, and a polarized public, Cyberwar closes with a warning: the country is ill-prepared to prevent a sequel" --

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Subjects
Genres
Nonfiction
Published
[New York, NY] : Oxford University Press [2018]
Language
English
Main Author
Kathleen Hall Jamieson (author)
Physical Description
xiii, 314 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 249-303) and index.
ISBN
9780190915810
  • Introduction: US susceptibilities, troll and hacker synchronies, and my suppositions
  • Part one: Who did it, why, and what research says about how it might matter. How do we know that Russian spies and saboteurs (aka hackers and trolls) intervened in the 2016 presidential election? ; A theory of communication that posits effects
  • Part two: The prerequisites of troll influence. The first troll prerequisite: widespread messaging ; The second troll prerequisite: messages aligned with Trump's electoral interests ; The third troll prerequisite: mobilizing veterans, white Christians, demobilizing blacks and Sander's supporters, and shifting liberals to Stein ; The fourth troll prerequisite: persuasive appeals ; The fifth troll prerequisite: well-targeted content
  • Part three: How the Russian affected the new and debate agendas in the last month of the campaign. The effect of Russian hacking on press coverage ; The effect of hacked content on the last two presidential debates ; The Russian effect on the media agenda in the last days of the election
  • Part four: What we don't, can't, and do know about how Russian hackers and trolls helped elected Donald J. Trump. Afterword: Where does this leave us?
  • Appendices: Evaluations of Clinton and Trump traits in October
  • Appendix one: Changes in perceptions of Clinton and Trump in October
  • Appendix two: Debate 2 and debate 3 exposure effect on candidate trait evaluations
  • Appendix three: Association between perception changes and vote intentions
  • Appendix four: Effect of traits on vote intention.
Review by Kirkus Book Review

Of partisans, trolls, and spooks: a stern dissection of the 2016 election.Exactly who planned and executed the Russian hacking of the 2016 election is not yet wholly known outside cybercrime circles, but it's clear that the beneficiary was Donald Trump. As Jamieson (Chair, Annenberg Public Policy Center/Univ. of Pennsylvania; Electing the President, 2012: The Insiders' View, 2013, etc.) writes, if you were to war-game out that cybercrime, you'd wind up with numerous scenarios. Only one is truly negative to the Russians: "The cyberattackers are unmasked by a vigilant intelligence community, condemned by those in both major political partiesthe Russian messagingblocked or labeled a Russian propaganda," sanctions put in place, and so on. That did not happen. Characterizing the hacking not as "interference" or "meddling" but as an act of cyberwar demanding proportional response, Jamieson surveys the damage: Millions of Americans swallowed Russian-generated lies and went at each other even as the "electoral systems of twenty-one states by one count and thirty-nine by another were hacked." Allowing that it wasn't Russians but American voters (and the Electoral College) who put Trump in office, the author performs an after-battle analysis of the "social disruption," with hackers hooking former FBI Director James Comey into reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails and even gaming the presidential debates. Jamieson is clear on why the Russians would have targeted Clinton; she is just as clear that the "legacy media" failed in their task and swallowed narrative lines wholeattributing misinformation to WikiLeaks, for one, and not "St. Petersburg," bypassing any discussion of Russian involvement until well after the fact. Chalking up the knowns and unknowns, the author concludes that by commission on one hand and omission on the other, both of the leading nominees "increased our collective vulnerability to Russian machinations in very different ways"machinations, she adds, that aren't likely to stop.There's no good news in this book, which both admonishes and forewarns. Somber but necessary reading for those interested in the democratic process and its enemies. Copyright Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.

Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.