Smart baseball The story behind the old stats that are ruining the game, the new ones that are running it, and the right way to think about baseball

Keith Law, 1973-

Book - 2017

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2nd Floor 796.35764/Law Checked In
Subjects
Published
New York : William Morrow, an imprint of HarperCollins Publishers [2017]
Language
English
Main Author
Keith Law, 1973- (author)
Edition
First edition
Item Description
Includes index.
Physical Description
viii, 291 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
ISBN
9780062490223
  • Introduction
  • Part 1. Smrt Baseball
  • 1. Below Average: The Fundamental Flaws of Batting Average
  • 2. Pitcher Wins: One Guy Gets the Credit for Everyone Else's Work
  • 3. RBI: Baseball's Unreliable Narrator
  • 4. Holtzman's Folly: How the Save Rule Has Ruined Baseball
  • 5. Stolen Bases: Crime Only Pays If You Never Get Caught
  • 6. Fielding Percentage: The Absolute Worst Way to Measure Defense
  • 7. Bulfinch's Baseball Mythology: Clutch Hitters, Lineup Protection, and Other Things That Don't Exist
  • Part 2. Smart Baseball
  • 8. OBP Is Life: Why On-Base Percentage Is the Measure of a Hitter
  • 9. The Power and the Glory: Slugging Percentage and OPS
  • 10. WOBA/WRC: The Ultimate Measure of the Hitter (Until the Next One)
  • 11. ERA and the Riddle of Pitching Versus Defense
  • 12. WPA: Measuring Clutch, If You Must
  • 13. The Black Box: How Baseball Teams Measure Defense Today
  • 14. No Puns Intended: Going to WAR to Value the Whole Player
  • Part 3. Smarter Baseball
  • 15. Applied Math: Looking at Hall of Fame Elections Using Newer Stats
  • 16. No Trouble with the Curve: How Scouting Works, and How the Statistical Revolution Is Changing It
  • 17. The Next Big Thing Is Here, the Revolution's Near: MLB Statcast
  • 18. The Edge of Tomorrow: Where the Future of Stats Might Take Us
  • Epilogue
  • Acknowledgments
  • Index
Review by Booklist Review

After abysmal failure as a young fantasy-baseball enthusiast in the nineties, Law concluded that the statistics he was using to make key decisions were failing him. Turning for guidance to Bill James, Eddie Epstein, and other sabermetric mavens, Law soon realized that many traditional baseball numbers batting average and RBIs for hitters, wins and saves for pitchers, and errors and fielding percentages for fielders hide more than they reveal. No wonder those who rely on them from fantasy baseballers to Major League executives end up making foolish moves. Fortunately, such foolishness is receding into the past for those now assessing the game with powerful new statistics such as weighted runs created (wRC) for hitters, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for pitchers, and defensive runs saved (DRS) for fielders. In mercifully plain English, Law explains how the new statistical tools can answer questions that previously baffled baseball experts. A must-read for everyone who brings a curious head as well as an impassioned heart to the ballpark.--Christensen, Bryce Copyright 2017 Booklist

From Booklist, Copyright (c) American Library Association. Used with permission.
Review by Publisher's Weekly Review

Baseball is full of truisms based on statistics, and Law sets out to debunk as many of them as he can. ESPN senior baseball writer Law brilliantly dismantles some of the game's most sacred and most misleading statistics-including pitcher wins and saves, RBIs, and stolen bases-with a style in which smart trumps snarky. In fact, his book's title is perfect. Law writes for the seasoned and savvy baseball fan, arguing that W stats such as WOBA (weighted on-base average), WRC (weighted runs created), WPA (win probability added), and WAR (wins above replacement) help teams and analysts place a more precise value on any given player's production. Law boldly second-guesses real-game decisions made by managers and makes his case with examples that range from the sport's early days through the 2016 postseason. As a new baseball season begins, Law challenges longtime fans to think differently about a game that he says has been hindered by inefficient traditions for far too long. (Apr.) © Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.

(c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved
Review by Library Journal Review

This book by ESPN sportswriter and analyst Law is both a primer on how sabermetrics are changing the way fans and professionals view baseball, as well as a thorough explanation of why traditional statistics are misleading or obsolete. Many fans consider sabermetrics and the rejection of traditional statistics to be blasphemous, but it cannot be denied that these new ways of measuring player performance have transformed the way the game is played. Defensive shifts and batting mechanics are just a few of the revolutionary effects. At the same time, traditional statistics such as the pitcher win and batting average ignore large aspects of the game and can misrepresent a player's impact. Law's background as an analyst gives him the knowledge and experience to put these different statistics in perspective and explain why they are more or less valuable. VERDICT If you're unsure of the way the new statistics operate, or wonder why the old approaches are being disparaged, this book is for you. Savvy baseball fans may want to look for more advanced texts.-Matt Schirano, Univ. of Bridgeport Lib., CT © Copyright 2017. Library Journals LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Media Source, Inc. No redistribution permitted.

(c) Copyright Library Journals LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Media Source, Inc. No redistribution permitted.
Review by Kirkus Book Review

A former Major League Baseball statistical analyst who now writes for ESPN shatters myths about how to accurately measure a baseball player's ability and then explains modern criteria that offer better results.Lawwho served as a special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and now is a senior baseball writer for ESPN Insider and an analyst for the network's show Baseball Tonightprovides a spirited exploration of statistics sure to start arguments among devoted baseball fans. Not all the explanations of statistical measurements, computer programming, and sophisticated technology developments are easily understandable, but the author's detailed explanations are as jargon-free as possible; readers need not comprehend everything to enjoy the book. In the chapter likely to cause the most passionate debate, Law relies on extensive statistical analysis to examine the Baseball Hall of Fame. The author names worthy players who were never voted in and calls out less-worthy players who achieved entrance. Law clearly explains the reasons for the poor decision-making by eligible voters. For position players, there is an overreliance on outmoded metrics such as batting average, runs batted in, and stolen bases as well as the lack of an effective method for measuring defensive prowess. For starting pitchers, voters focus too much on games won and earned run averages; for relief pitchers, it's games saved. For all pitchers, the author stresses the lack of criteria regarding the nature of the stadiums when they enter games and the quality of their team's defense. Law also shatters the conventional wisdom regarding "clutch hitters." Rather than leaving readers with utter negativity, the author explains persuasively how and why the new analytics are likely to improve the performances of individual players and entire teams. For baseball fans, Law offers a smooth combination of erudition and his obvious love of the sport. Copyright Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.

Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.