This time is different Eight centuries of financial folly

Carmen M. Reinhart

Book - 2009

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Subjects
Published
Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press c2009.
Language
English
Main Author
Carmen M. Reinhart (-)
Other Authors
Kenneth S. Rogoff (-)
Physical Description
xlv, 463 p. : ill. ; 24 cm
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN
9780691142166
  • List of Tables
  • List of Figures
  • List of Boxes
  • Preface
  • Acknowledgments
  • Preamble: Some Initial Intuitions on Financial Fragility and The Fickle Nature of Confidence
  • Part I. Financial Crises: An Operational Primer
  • 1. Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
  • Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement
  • Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default
  • Other Key Concepts
  • 2. Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default
  • Debt Thresholds
  • Measuring Vulnerability
  • Clubs and Regions
  • Reflections on Debt Intolerance
  • 3. A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View
  • Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP
  • Government Finances and National Accounts
  • Public Debt and Its Composition
  • Global Variables
  • Country Coverage
  • Part II. Sovereign External Debt Crises
  • 4. A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises
  • Sovereign Lending
  • Illiquidity versus Insolvency
  • Partial Default and Rescheduling
  • Odious Debt
  • Domestic Public Debt
  • Conclusions
  • 5. Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt
  • Recurring Patterns
  • Default and Banking Crises
  • Default and Inflation
  • Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default
  • The Duration of Default Episodes
  • 6. External Default through History
  • The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300--1799
  • Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story
  • External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture
  • Part III. The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default
  • 7. The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default
  • Domestic and External Debt
  • Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition
  • Episodes of Domestic Default
  • Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt
  • 8. Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation
  • Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle
  • Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default
  • The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax"
  • Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base?
  • The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited
  • 9. Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior?
  • Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults
  • Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults
  • The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors
  • Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues
  • Part IV. Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes
  • 10. Banking Crises
  • A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises
  • Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace
  • Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization
  • Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices
  • Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry?
  • The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited
  • Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations
  • 11. Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite"
  • 12. Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes
  • An Early History of Inflation Crises
  • Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons
  • Currency Crashes
  • The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses
  • Undoing Domestic Dollarization
  • Part V. The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction
  • 13. The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison
  • A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath
  • The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis
  • Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis
  • The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis
  • A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies
  • Summary
  • 14. The Aftermath of Financial Crises
  • Historical Episodes Revisited
  • The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration
  • The Fiscal Legacy of Crises
  • Sovereign Risk
  • Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s
  • Concluding Remarks
  • 15. The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals?
  • Concepts of Contagion
  • Selected Earlier Episodes
  • Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction
  • Are More Spillovers Under Way?
  • 16. Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil
  • Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index
  • Defining a Global Financial Crisis
  • The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype
  • Summary
  • Part VI. What Have We Learned?
  • 17. Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature
  • On Early Warnings of Crises
  • The Role of International Institutions
  • Graduation
  • Some Observations on Policy Responses
  • The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome
  • Data Appendixes
  • A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series
  • A.2. Public Debt
  • A.3. Dates of Banking Crises
  • A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises
  • Notes
  • References
  • Name Index
  • Subject Index
Review by Choice Review

Reinhart (economics, Univ. of Maryland) and Rogoff (public policy and economics, Harvard Univ.) have compiled an encyclopedic analysis of the history of financial crises over the last 750 years. But their volume is not merely of historical interest. Rather, it has great relevance for anyone interested in understanding how the current financial crisis is likely to unfold. One of the authors' major findings is the similarity of these crises over time and across countries. One surprising discovery is that banking crises are more frequent in the advanced countries. Although the book concentrates on financial disruptions, the authors are clear that the financial system is not necessarily the cause of the disruption. Instead, finance tends to amplify the underlying problem and perhaps spread the instability to other parts of the world. The authors avoid using jargon, making this work accessible to undergraduate students. In addition, they disperse interesting stories about finance throughout the book, making it more enjoyable. Rich data appendixes add to the value of this volume. Summing Up: Highly recommended. Lower-division undergraduate through professional collections. M. Perelman California State University, Chico

Copyright American Library Association, used with permission.